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Bifurcation analysis of a two-infection transmission model with explicit vector dynamics
- Prelegent(ci)
- Akhil Kumar Srivastav
- Afiliacja
- Barcelona Institute of Global Health
- Język referatu
- angielski
- Termin
- 16 kwietnia 2025 14:15
- Link
- https://uw-edu-pl.zoom.us/j/95356705831?pwd=gW0HrXGBMnu8fE7GuUx3jtaHVw9Dp7.1
- Informacje na temat wydarzenia
- Attention: this seminar will be online!
- Seminarium
- Seminarium Zakładu Biomatematyki i Teorii Gier
The investigation of epidemiological scenarios characterized by chaotic dynamics is crucial for understanding disease spread and improving control strategies, yet it remains largely unexplored. Motivated by dengue fever epidemiology, we present the SIRSIR-UV model, which differentiates between primary and secondary infections incorporating also, temporary immunity and disease enhancement factors while explicitly considering disease vector dynamics.
The SIRSIR-UV model extends the two-infection SIR model, which lacks explicit vector dynamics while maintaining key biological features. Through nonlinear dynamics and bifurcation theory, our analysis reveals the influence of explicitly considering vector dynamics on overall system outcomes. We derive analytical expressions for transcritical and tangent bifurcations, formalize backward bifurcation through center manifold theory, and compute Hopf and global homoclinic bifurcation curves. Additionally, by incorporating seasonal forcing in vector populations, we observe the emergence of chaotic behavior, highlighting the significance of external factors like climate in the spread of vector-borne diseases. Beyond providing insights into mathematical modeling, explicitly incorporating vector dynamics in vector-borne disease models sheds light on the impact of new findings when compared to previous studies that did not account for explicit vector modeling. This work enhances our understanding of mathematical modeling in vector-borne diseases and identifies critical factors affecting disease transmission, emphasizing the relevance of simplifying assumptions when vector control is not prioritized.
