Modeling the effects of human behavior on respiratory viruses coinfection dynamics

Prelegent(ci)

Emanuela Penitente

Termin

28 lutego 2024 14:15

Link

https://uw-edu-pl.zoom.us/j/94517518772?pwd=OGhXdHVGTHozcW5OZjVBdTZnblVoZz09

Seminarium

Seminarium Zakładu Biomatematyki i Teorii Gier

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Respiratory virus coinfection refers to the simultaneous infection of two viruses spreading in the respiratory tract of the same host. This phenomenon can involve coronaviruses, respiratory syncytial virus, human rhinoviruses, adenoviruses, or influenza viruses. Based on the medical literature, coinfections of respiratory viruses are common in the real world. The mathematical epidemiology literature provides us with some models to describe the dynamics of coinfections between respiratory viruses. Nonetheless, to the best of our knowledge, there are no models in the literature for respiratory virus coinfections that include information–induced behavioral changes. However, it is essential to gain a better understanding of the impact of information–induced behavioral changes, to better predict the development of epidemics and coinfections and most importantly to shape local and global public health policies. This work aims to model the effects of human behavior on the coinfection dynamics of respiratory viruses. We developed two information–dependent epidemic models including the effects of behavioral changes in the population. The information is mathematically modeled by the notion of information index, originally conceived in 2007 by A. d’Onofrio et al. The techniques used include the development of appropriate compartmentalized models whose dynamics are governed by systems of nonlinear ordinary differential equations, qualitative analysis (e.g., stability and bifurcation theory) and numerical simulations.

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