Modeling a new pandemic with an old equation. Ohio statewide SIR models for COVID-19

 The COVID-19 pandemic has inspired much work on mathematical models of epidemics over the past 20 months. In particular, the classical ODE model of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) and its modifications have been frequently used for various predictions and statistical analysis of the epidemic dynamics. In this talk, I will describe the specific SIR-type model developed by OSU in March 2020 to help the Ohio Governor’s office with planning for pandemic response. In particular, I will explain the model’s probabilistic interpretation and its connection with the popular Sellkie algorithm for constructing trajectories of non-Markovian epidemics