A new SEIR type model including quarantine effects and its application to analysis of COVID-19 epidemic in Poland in March-April 2020

Tomasz Piasecki is going to present recent results of a joint work with Piotr B. Mucha (University of Warsaw) and Magdalena Rosińska (National Institute of Public Health - National Institute of Hygiene). *** Contact tracing and quarantine are well established non-pharmaceutical epidemic control tools. In order to investigate the impact of these measures in COVID-19 epidemic we introduce a deterministic SEIR - type model (SEIRQ: susceptible, exposed, infectious, removed, quarantined) with Q compartment capturing individuals and releasing them with delay. We obtain a simple rule defining the reproduction number R in terms of quarantine parameters, ratio of diagnosed cases and transmission parameters. The model is applied to the epidemic in Poland in March - April 2020, when social distancing measures were in place. We investigate 3 scenarios corresponding to different ratios of diagnosed cases. Our results show that depending on the scenario contact tracing could have prevented from 50% to over 90% of cases. The effects of quarantine are limited by fraction of undiagnosed cases. *** Hangouts Meet: at 12:00 *** meet.google.com/ufe-xfwd-jio *** All welcome!