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Stanisław Cebrat (Department of Genomics, University of Wrocław)
Modeling the evolution of age structured populations and ageing processes.
Lecture 2 (see Lecture 1, Lecture 3)
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Abstract:
The Penna model, based on the Monte Carlo simulations, supports the
mutation accumulation theory of aging. This microscopic model has been
already exploited for quantitative description of many biological
phenomena connected with the population evolution. The results of
simulations could describe the changes of mortality trajectories of the
human populations during the last 150 years and the method could be used
for prediction of the human age distribution in the future. The main
assumption of the model is that the genes are expressed chronologically
one after the other in the same order in all individuals during their life
span. Different force of selection pressure exerted on genes expressed at
different periods of life generates characteristic gradient of the
defective genes accumulated into the germline cells. Genes expressed after
the minimum reproduction age are under weaker selection pressure and the
fraction of defects among them is higher than among the genes expressed
before the minimum reproduction age. Gradient of defects generates a
gradient of mortality for the part of population in the reproduction age
following the exponential Gompertz law. The limitations of the model and
some biological interpretation of its parameters will be also discussed.
S. Moss de Oliveira, P.M.C. de Oliveira, D. Stauffer, Evolution, Money,
War and Computers, Teubner, Stuttgart and Leipzig 1999;
D. Stauffer, S. Moss de Oliveira, P.M.C. de Oliveira, J.S. S\'a Martins,
Biology, Sociology, Geology by Computational Physicists. Amsterdam:
Elsevier 2006.
A. Laszkiewicz, S. Cebrat, 2005, Monte Carlo Simulations of the Age
Structure of the Human Population. J. Insurance Medicine 37(1),3-12.
A. Laszkiewicz, S. Cebrat, D. Stauffer, 2005, Scaling effects in the Penna
ageing model. Adv. Complex Systems, 8(1), 7-14
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